By Staff Reporter
Despite recent strong non-oil growth,
- Poverty and income inequality remain high
- Social and governance indicators are below averages for sub-Saharan Africa.
- Structural reforms under the Transformation Agenda are ongoing,
- Significant infrastructure gaps and weak institutional capacity still retard growth prospects.
- At the same time, vulnerabilities are rising in the buildup to general elections in 2015
- Fiscal buffers have been reduced.
- Meanwhile, GDP is being rebased and structural shifts may suggest a refocus in some policy areas
- Outlook and Risks.
- Growth is expected to remain strong, driven by agriculture, trade, and services.
- Inflation should continue to decline, in line with a tight monetary policy
- lowering trend in food prices from higher rice and wheat production.
- Key downside risks are
- (i) persistently lower oil revenue from changing global dynamics and lower domestic production;
- (ii) less prudent fiscal policy through the ongoing political cycle;
- (iii) ongoing security problems in the North;
- (iv) uncertainty about the pace of global recovery;
- (v) capital flow reversals from the expected unwinding of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) in the advanced economies or increased domestic political risk.
- Addressing oil theft/production losses.
- Transparency and governance in the oil sector should be enhanced,
- Strengthening the regulatory framework through the passage of a sound Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) featuring stringent enforcement clauses.
Please access full report -http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14103.pdf