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Africa Economy IMF Nigeria

Nigeria enjoys non oil growth-IMF

By Staff Reporter

IMF Worries:

Despite recent strong non-oil growth,

  • Poverty and income inequality remain high
  • Social and governance indicators are below averages for sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Structural reforms under the Transformation Agenda are ongoing,
  • Significant infrastructure gaps and weak institutional capacity still retard growth prospects.
  • At the same time, vulnerabilities are rising in the buildup to general elections in 2015
  • Fiscal buffers have been reduced.
  • Meanwhile, GDP is being rebased and structural shifts may suggest a refocus in some policy areas
  • Outlook and Risks.
  • Growth is expected to remain strong, driven by agriculture, trade, and services.
  • Inflation should continue to decline, in line with a tight monetary policy
  • lowering trend in food prices from higher rice and wheat production.
  • Key downside risks are
  • (i) persistently lower oil revenue from changing global dynamics and lower domestic production;
  • (ii) less prudent fiscal policy through the ongoing political cycle;
  • (iii) ongoing security problems in the North;
  • (iv) uncertainty about the pace of global recovery;
  • (v) capital flow reversals from the expected unwinding of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) in the advanced economies or increased domestic political risk.
  • Addressing oil theft/production losses.
  • Transparency and governance in the oil sector should be enhanced,
  • Strengthening the regulatory framework through the passage of a sound Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) featuring stringent enforcement clauses.

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